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November 21, 2019

Stocks Fall Most in 6 Weeks, Rates Fall Across the Curve on Potential Phase One Delay

 

Stocks fall by most in six weeks, Treasurys rally amid concerns that a phase one trade deal may not get finalized this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.80% and 1.1%, respectively, after President Trump suggested that China isn’t “stepping up” and that a phase one trade deal may not get finalized in 2019. Amidst that backdrop, China has now also demanded that Trump veto the two pieces of Hong Kong legislation aimed at supporting pro-democracy protestors. Treasurys rose across the curve yesterday, rates falling ~ 4 basis points. This morning Treasurys are giving some of those gains back, rates rising by about a basis point.

 

 

FOMC minutes confirm that Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged unless outlook materially worsens. Minutes from the Fed’s October 31st meeting matched the public statements Fed officials have made since- namely that current policy remains appropriate, and will remain so unless the economic outlook changes significantly. Fed officials also maintained that monetary policy is not on a preset course, though for the time being they seem content to wait and see how the 100 basis point reduction in policy rates will impact the economy. The FOMC also noted that plenty of downside risks remain- specifically “weakness in global growth” and “elevated uncertainty regarding trade developments.”

 

 

Day ahead. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims both came in line with expectations. New home sales meanwhile came in slightly worse than forecasts (5.46mm vs 5.49mm). Fed officials Loretta Mester and Neel Kashkari will also speak today (both are FOMC voters in 2020).  

 

 

 

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