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April 21, 2020

Rates Fall as Oil Futures Dip into Negative Territory

 

April 20, 2020

Rates Fall as Oil Hits New 20-Year Low

 

Congress and Trump administration close in on additional economic stimulus package. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the bill will add an additional $300B for the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program, $50B for the Economic Injury Disaster Loan, $75B for hospitals, and $25B for increased testing. Aid for state and local governments will not be included in the deal according to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. With the small business rescue fund already exhausting their...

April 17, 2020

Rates Mixed as President Trump Announces Guidelines to Reopen US Economy

 

President Trump announces guidelines for reopening the US economy. In the daily COVID-19 briefing yesterday, President Trump detailed a three-phase plan to gradually reopen the nation. The first phase includes opening a number of venues like movie theaters and restaurants, followed a second phase where nonessential travel can resume, and the third placing no restriction on workplaces. Governors will ultimately decide on the timeline for their respective states, but President Trump urged them to act quickly,...

April 16, 2020

Rates Fall as President Trump's New Task Force Discusses Reopening US Economy

 

President Trump's new COVID-19 task force discusses reopening economy. Titled the Great American Economic Revival Industry Groups, the team consists of 200 business executives from around the country (key members include Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jamie Dimon) tasked with discussing a a plan to reopen parts of the US and coordinating responses to economic damage already incurred. In the meantime, the Trump administration continues to face criticism in its plans to reopen the economy in the near future, as...

April 15, 2020

Rates Fall as Coronavirus Weighs on Corporate Earnings, Economic Data

 

New coronavirus cases rise 4.6%, but look to be slowing in the US. The 4.6% increase in US cases is lower than the 7% daily average seen over the past week- yet another sign that social distancing measures are working to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Despite the optimism coming from the administration, infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci sounded a cautious tone yesterday, saying that the US is “not there yet” on testing capabilities- a prerequisite to the reopening of the economy. President Trump deflected...

April 14, 2020

Rates Rise as Officials Begin to Discuss Reopening of Economy

 

State officials are developing plans to reopen the US economy as COVID-19 infection rates continue to slow. Though the national toll has passed 23,000 fatalities, both local and federal conversations have firmly shifted to re-opening the US economy. Two groups of governors across both coasts are forming regional working groups to discuss a coordinated plan to reopen the US. This came after CDC Director Robert Redfield said, "You'll know when you're at the peak when the next day is actually less than the day...

April 13, 2020

OPEC+ Announces Deal to Cut Oil Production

 

Saudi Arabia and Russia agree to biggest oil production cut in history, ending price war (for now). The historic output cut is more than double of those made during the 2008 financial crisis, but it remains unclear whether the deal will be large enough to offset the COVID-driven demand shock. The price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia had been one of two major risks to global growth that kicked off the breathtaking sell-off in risk assets last month. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, crude prices have...

April 9, 2020

Treasury Yields Mixed After FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed's Concern Over Virus Impacts

 

FOMC minutes reveal distress over the COVID-19 pandemic. The minutes from the Fed’s March 15th meeting defended the recent rate cuts, promising the benchmark range to stay between 0 and 0.25% until price stability is regained and the labor market has recovered. ”All participants viewed the near-term US economic outlook as having deteriorated sharply in recent weeks and as having become profoundly uncertain,” the minutes stated, alluding to the potential for further action based on on how fast the US economy can...

April 8, 2020

Treasury Yields Rise as New COVID-19 Infections Show Signs of Leveling Off

 

Treasury yields rose modestly as the US COVID-19 death toll rose sharply on Tuesday. Five weeks into the coronavirus pandemic, New York reported its highest number of deaths on record at 731. Despite this grim figure, the White House is already is already developing a plan to reopen the US economy in the next four to eight weeks as his administration sees new virus-related hospitalizations leveling off. President Trump added, "We're looking at two concepts. We're looking at the concept where you open up sections...

April 7, 2020

Treasury Yields Rise as Rate of New COVID Cases Slows

 

Rates and risk assets rebound as new COVID infections plateau and Congress discusses additional stimulus. Though Congress will not be back in session until April 20th, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a call on Monday with more than 180 House Democrats to discuss an additional relief package worth at least $1T. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen fueled the urgency to pass another stimulus bill, telling Congress that she expects unemployment applications to soar even higher in the coming weeks. House Democrats aim to...

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